This year, the fight for control of the Senate is mostly happening in seats held by Democrats, since Vice President Kamala Harris’s party is trying to hold on to a slim 51-49 seat lead.
The retirement of Democratic Senator Joe Manchin III in deeply red West Virginia has almost given the Republicans a seat. The Republicans are now going after some Democratic lawmakers who are weak in red or swing states. If Donald J. Trump, the former president, gets the White House, the GOP only needs one seat to take over the House. The vice president breaks ties in the Senate if there are equal votes.
This is how the Senate usually works: all Democrats currently in office would have to win, along with their candidates for open seats in Arizona, Michigan, and Maryland. They would also need Ms. Harris to be elected so that her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, can break a tie if the chamber is evenly split.
The party wants to take back two seats that Republicans currently hold, but those are seen as tougher places to take. These are the 2024 Senate races you should pay attention to.
“Key races to watch in swing states for the 2024 Senate elections.” (via @USATODAY) https://t.co/iNLLMcUYJF
— Dan Nowicki (@dannowicki) May 8, 2024
Farmer and a former Navy SEAL in Montana
Senator Jon Tester is the farmer with the flat top from Big Sandy, Montana. He has beaten the odds before in his increasingly Republican state, but his wins in 2006, 2012, and 2018 all came in years when Democrats did well nationally. The battle for a fourth term will be a lot tougher in a state that Mr. Trump won by sixteen percentage points in 2020. Tim Sheehy is the Republican Party’s candidate. He is a wealthy businessman and famous former Navy SEAL who can pay for his campaign. Mr. Trump also backs him.
As a third-generation Montanan, Mr. Tester has the power that comes with being in office for a long time. President Barack Obama got 41.7 percent of the vote in 2012. The grade Mr. Tester got was 48.6%. That is, people who will vote for both Mr. Trump for president and him for Senate. He might need even more of those people this November.
Ohio’s Sherrod Brown is in the most important political fight of his life
Senator Sherrod Brown is the only other Democrat running for office in a state that is mostly Republican besides Mr. Tester. He, too, has won in years when Democrats did well, like 2006, 2012, and 2018. Like Mr. Tester, he has built a reputation as a strong supporter of the working-class voters who will decide the race. Mr. Brown has a lot of money for his re-election bid because he is a powerful senator and chairs the Senate Banking Committee.
He won’t be running against Mr. Tester, but against a Republican who wasn’t picked by the Ohio GOP elite. It was Bernie Moreno, not Trump, who ran against him. The Republican has a lot of money that will help him raise money and run a strong campaign against the incumbent. On the other hand, Democrats backed Mr. Moreno in the primary because they thought his business background would make him easy to target.
Arizona: Kari Lake tries again; she is a well-known poll denier
Senator Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat who became an independent, is retiring. This leaves Representative Ruben Gallego, a progressive, and Kari Lake, a former TV news anchor who supported Mr. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement but lost her bid for governor in 2022. They will be running for the Senate.
In 2020, President Biden barely won Arizona. Unlike Ohio and Montana, the state looks like it will be a presidential fight, which could change the Senate race. People knew Ms. Lake was lying when she said that Democrats stole Mr. Biden’s election in Arizona in 2020 and then when she said that Katie Hobbs, her Democratic opponent for governor, stole her election.
Mr. Gallego is not as well known outside of his Phoenix House district, but his story is interesting: he is Latino, went to Harvard, and fought in Iraq with the Marine Corps.
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Michigan: Trump is a big deal
Democrats are running for the place of retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow. The race is still going on. Rep. Elissa Slotkin is a Democrat who has used her experience in national security to win over swing voters in Central Michigan since 2018. She is running against Mike Rogers, a moderate Republican who said the party needed to move on from Mr. Trump and then wooed and won Mr. Trump’s support for his Senate campaign and hugged him.
To win, she will need to keep the moderate voters and get more leftist voters in and around Detroit excited. And the presidential race is the biggest deal of all.
Nevada: low-key leader vs. newcomer to politics
Nevada Democrats have been able to make money off of Republican voters’ preference for candidates on the far right and left of the party in recent years. But this year, party leaders grouped around Sam Brown, a newcomer to politics with an amazing story.
In Kandahar, Afghanistan, a roadside bomb almost killed the West Point graduate. It burned him badly and left him with scars that will never go away. It might be a good thing that he doesn’t have much political experience because it will make him hard to name.
The current Democrat senator, Jacky Rosen, isn’t very flashy, but being in office for a long time gives you power.
Wis.: A wealthy Republican candidate is being questioned about his ties to the state
A Democrat named Senator Tammy Baldwin has been a quiet force in Wisconsin politics since she was elected to the State Assembly in 1992. Wisconsin just re-elected its generally quiet governor, Tony Evers, for a second term in 2022, and the state seems to like Democrats who don’t make a lot of noise.
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Eric Hovde, a banker and businessman who, if nothing else, can pay for his own campaign, is the Republican candidate. However, his ties to Southern California a state full of Badger pride have helped the governor stay in the race.
David McCormick tries again in Pennsylvania
But Senator Bob Casey, the Democratic incumbent, is a well-known figure. The Keystone State may be a key battleground in the presidential race this year. David McCormick, a Republican, is running against him. He used to be the CEO of Bridgewater Associates, which was one of the biggest hedge funds in the world.
In 2022, Mr. McCormick lost the Republican primary for the Senate to Mehmet Oz. The same attacks on his wealth and Connecticut home will likely be used just like they were two years ago.
Maryland: Things are fun with Larry Hogan around
Maryland is reliably blue, so it shouldn’t be in the race, but Larry Hogan, the moderate former Republican governor, has chosen to run for the Senate seat that Ben Cardin is leaving. This makes the race interesting to watch.
Angela Alsobrooks, the governor of Prince George’s County and a former state’s attorney, was chosen by Democrats.
Democrats are trying to win seats in Texas and Florida, which are always red.
There are only two races where Democrats need to be on the offensive: Ted Cruz’s in Texas and Rick Scott’s in Florida. In their home states, neither man has ever been very well-liked, but those states have been consistently Republican lately. Democrats like Representative Colin Allred in Texas and former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida, but Mr. Trump’s support would have to drop a lot for those Senate seats to be in play.
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Extra races to watch: long shots
Utah isn’t a swing state, but a Democrat named Caroline Gleich made a big splash with a unique movie announcing her candidacy.
John Curtis, the Republican nominee, is the favorite to fill the spot left vacant by Mitt Romney, who is retiring.
Almost as red as Utah, Nebraska is run by a Republican, Deb Fischer, who is running for re-election.
Dan Osborn, an independent, is her main opponent. He led a strike at the Kellogg’s plant in Omaha in 2021 and is seeing if his message of support for workers and the working class can echo at a time when the union movement is on the rise again.
