Despite DeSantis’s success, Trump is still leading in most national surveys. According to two recent polls, former President Donald Trump might be a formidable opponent for Ron DeSantis in the upcoming 2024 election.
Consistent with previous recent polls, two nationwide surveys of a hypothetical 2024 Republican Presidential Primary showed the former President with a larger share of the vote than the Florida Governor. This indicates that support for DeSantis among some conservative intellectuals may not have entirely transferred to prospective voters just yet.
According to a poll conducted by McLaughlin from December 9-14, Trump would beat DeSantis in a direct matchup in a more general election. Compared to DeSantis’ 23%, Trump’s 48% was a significant margin of victory. To round out the top five, we have Vice President Mike Pence (5%), former Representative Liz Cheney (4%), and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (3%). Only two percent of the vote went to Mitt Romney, while Marco Rubio was one of eight candidates to get one percent.
McLaughlin’s poll showed Trump with 58% support compared to DeSantis’s 36% support. This is despite the fact that several previous polls have shown DeSantis beating Trump if the field were confined to just those two candidates. When this was initially asked in October, Trump led 64–29 percent.
In a positive development, these 480 potential Republican Primary voters choose DeSantis over Trump if Trump decides not to run. He received 39% of the vote compared to the rest of the field, with Donald Trump, Jr. in second place with 16% support. Only 7% of voters supported Pence, while no other contender received more than 4%.
Another recent survey, this one from Cygnal and done between December 12th and 14th, shows Trump just five points ahead of DeSantis, with an analyst praising the “midterm shakeup.” While Trump is still in the lead, his margin against DeSantis has shrunk from 19% in October to only 5% now. 74% of GOP primary voters had a positive impression of both him and DeSantis. Trump has the support of 40% of the people who have said they would vote in this hypothetical election.
Donald Trump is coming back in 2024 whether you like it or not.
Get over it. Accept it. Embrace it. Move on.
— Nick Adams (Alpha Male) (@NickAdamsinUSA) December 20, 2022
The 1,079 likely voters questioned gave DeSantis 52% of their support if Trump weren’t a candidate. There are clear divisions between the former President’s and the Governor’s bases, according to the pollsters.
Despite the fact that 2024 is still a long way off, there has been a change in momentum over the past several weeks, according to Cygnal President and pollster Brent Buchanan. While (ex-)President Trump maintains higher support among lower-educated primary voters, “DeSantis’ ascent has been propelled in part by the strengthening of his support among upper-education Republicans.”
According to Cygnal political consultant Mitchell Brown, “there is a pattern starting to emerge across age groups for the Republican Party,” with “younger voters” sticking with the former President, “older voters” turning toward DeSantis, and “middle-aged voters” remaining divided between the two.
While DeSantis has had some success, Trump continues to dominate in national polls. Two recent surveys suggest that former President Donald Trump might provide a significant challenge to Ron DeSantis in the forthcoming 2024 race.
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